Black Sheep predicts the 2012 Academy Awards

It's a shame the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences decided to change the Best Picture rules this year. Now, anywhere between five and ten films will be nominated for the field's most prestigious honour in a year that could have easily seen ten very deserving candidates fill those slots. Instead, each film must garner 5% of the first place vote in the Academy's intricate and complicated system to earn a slot in the Top 10. If only six films manage it, then so be it, there are only six nominees this year. At least they would know that the films nominated have passionate followings.

I predict eight films will be nominated for Best Picture tomorrow. A secret part of me really wants to say nine because I would love to see BRIDESMAIDS sneak in there too. I think it has a pretty good shot but I'm playing it conservatively. This way if I'm wrong, well I'll be happy to be it.

The following are my predictions in the eight major Oscar categories. The nominees will be announced tomorrow at 8:30 AM, my time. (That's PST, in case you don't know where I live.)

(Click on any title to read the original Black Sheep review)

BEST PICTURE

THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
THE HELP
HUGO
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
MONEYBALL
THE TREE OF LIFE
WAR HORSE

BEST DIRECTOR

Woody Allen for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Michel Hazanavicius for THE ARTIST
Alexander Payne for THE DESCENDANTS
Martin Scorsese for HUGO
Steven Spielberg for WAR HORSE

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney in THE DESCENDANTS
Jean Dujardin in THE ARTIST
Michael Fassbender in SHAME
Gary Oldman in TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Brad Pitt in MONEYBALL

BEST ACTRESS

Glenn Close in ALBERT NOBBS
Viola Davis in THE HELP
Meryl Streep in THE IRON LADY
Tilda Swinton in WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN
Michelle Williams in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kenneth Brannagh in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
Albert Brooks in DRIVE
Nick Nolte in WARRIOR
Christopher Plummer in BEGINNERS
Max von Sydow in EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Berenice Bejo in THE ARTIST
Jessica Chastain in THE HELP
Melissa McCarthy in BRIDESMAIDS
Janet McTeer in ALBERT NOBBS
Octavia Spencer in THE HELP

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

50/50
THE ARTIST
BEGINNERS
BRIDESMAIDS
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

THE DESCENDANTS
THE HELP
HUGO
MONEYBALL
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

Check back tomorrow for the full list of nominees and to see how I did. I've made a few risky choices so my fingers are crossed. Also, the term "risky" is relative in this scenario as we are in fact talking about Oscar predictions.